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How PropFitt models your prop firm challenge — the maths behind each number, and what to do when something looks off.

Drawdown Survival Model

Risk per trade = remaining max drawdown ÷ (your historical max losing streak + safety buffer). Every closed loss consumes exactly one protected slot, so the counter walks 8 → 7 → 6 and hits zero the moment the drawdown budget is spent. The result is also capped by your daily drawdown limit and clamped to a practical 0.25%–2.00% band.

Wins to pass model

Risk per trade = remaining target ÷ (winning trades × reward per win). This answers "how big must each trade be to pass in N wins?". Drawdown-survival caps are intentionally not applied here — use it to plan pace, then sanity-check it against the survival model.

Pass probability & risk of ruin

Both come from a calibrated Monte-Carlo simulation. Your win rate and reward per win are treated as uncertain estimates (sampled from a posterior), so a 60% win rate over 20 trades is trusted far less than the same rate over 500. Each simulated path respects your target, max drawdown type (static / trailing / end-of-day trailing) and daily loss limit.

Drawdown rules

Static drawdown measures from the starting balance. Trailing follows your equity peak continuously; end-of-day trailing only ratchets at the daily close. The daily loss limit is a percentage of the higher of your starting balance and the day's opening balance.

Phases, archive and inactivity

A challenge can run 1–3 phases, each with its own target and drawdown rules. Passing or failing is reconciled automatically from your journal, and correcting a trade can un-fail a phase. The inactivity counter starts the day after your last trade (or the challenge start date) and warns before the firm's limit.

Quick start

  1. 1. Add your strategy. Trading Edge → new strategy: win rate, reward per win, trades per week, take-profit plan.
  2. 2. Create a challenge. Pick a prop firm preset (name, broker, target and drawdown auto-fill), set the phases, start date and inactivity limit.
  3. 3. Read the risk planner. Choose the survival model or wins-to-pass, then take the recommended risk % per trade.
  4. 4. Log every trade. The journal drives the balance curve, drawdown, pass probability and phase reconciliation.

FAQ